Copenhagen climate change conference 2009 – 80 DAYS TO GO

China ahead of COP15 : Ever ambitious green objectives.

New hopes for renewables by 2020/2030.

A massive solar photovoltaic power plant is to be built in Inner Mongolia (Northern China) by the American First Solar Inc. The power generating capacity would eventually amount to 2 gigawatts, contributing greatly to the government’s ‘20 gW by 2020’ goal for solar power generation capacity. China, along with the US, is one of the world biggest solar panels producers but has so far lagged behind in terms of solar power production capacity. This is expected to change, with China becoming the largest market over the next decade (approaching Germany’s level by 2013).

The journal ‘Science’ tells us that wind power, with enough support, could help meet half of China’s electricity demand by 2030 and thus reduce emissions by 30%. However, this is much higher than the most optimistic official forecast and, in addition, power generating capacity doesn’t mean actual electricity production: the tricky and costly problem of connection to the power grid will inevitably need to be addressed.

Another surge in the nuclear plan: the Chinese government is constantly increasing its targets for nuclear power capacity, with latest estimate is between 70 and 86 gW by 2020, dwarfing a recent 40 gW figure. The World Nuclear Association sees a 134 gW capacity by 2030.

An independent report from E3G estimates that China will be able to halve the carbon intensity of its economy by 2020 (although still amounting to a 40% growth of CO2 emissions from today’s level). Top expert Nicholas Stern from the London School of Economics estimates that this figure matches the initial step of the path requested to reach acceptable emissions level. This allows him to call China a future leader in the pursuit of a low-carbon economy.

Favorable developments in China-US talks and cooperation.

Leading up to a visit to China by President Obama in November, several bilateral visits and meetings continue to take place: earlier this month, Washington Senator Maria Cantwell visited Beijing, and Chinese top legislator Wu Bangguo was in the United States to meet Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. Cantwell expressed confidence that Obama’s visit in November would result in an environmental agreement and a common position for Copenhagen in December, at “D day -30.” Additionally, informal negotiations continue unabated between China and other powers such as India and member states of the European Union, asking them to cut their emissions up to 30% below ‘business as usual’. This figure rings strange given the 30% reduction achievable in the Middle Kingdom by 2030, solely in the field of wind power. Therefore, it seems China may be in a position to surprise more than one observer in Copenhagen during the COP 15 discussions December next.

Eric MEYER

China Trade Winds Editor


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